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| This is a move that all managers should understand in playoff series. I have dubbed it the "Lee Gambit." It's taking out your ace pitcher early in a lopsided playoff game, to allow him to start again on shorter rest than usual.
If a playoff game becomes lopsided early, and your ace pitcher started, you should take him out! Let your 4th or 5th starter go the rest of the way. It lowers your chances of winning this game very slightly, and increases your chances of winning a later game by a lot, because your ace can come back 2-3 days later instead of 4-5! Because you have one or two starters available out of the bullpen, having a starting pitcher "eat up innings" or "save the bullpen" is much less relevant than it would be during the regular season. (Plus, you have an offseason coming up soon anyway.)
A perfect situation for the Lee Gambit is this: you're down 3-1 in the series, your team is ahead 8-0 after three innings, and your ace has thrown 40 pitches. I'm confused by what exactly you gain by leaving him in there. Managing a pitching staff in the postseason is about trying to get your best pitchers in the highest leverage situations. Routine and tradition should not matter one bit.
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| It's game 5. Your team is down 3-1, and your lone ace pitcher is starting today. Let's call him "Biff Lee." Tomorrow is a day off, meaning a potential game 7 would be 3 days from now. You have a 6-1 lead in the 5th inning, and Biff's pitch count is still low. PULLING HIM TO USE IN GAME 7 SHOULD BE A NO-BRAINER!
You must win this game AND the next two to win the World Series. The "if we lose today, it's over!" attitude is absurd. Your probability of winning this game given the current situation is roughly 93%. Leaving Biff in cannot possibly boost this number very much. This is what we call a "low-leverage" situation. Starting a reasonably fresh Biff in game 7, on the other hand, will increase the probability of winning THAT game by quite a bit. No one seems to understand this. Not analysts, fans, nor Biff's completely hypothetical manager.
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| This is not my normal analytical type of post. I'm just upset.
Please fire Joe Buck and Tim McCarver. Or at least do not allow them to cover postseason games. These supposedly "professional" broadcasters do not even have the standards and decency to learn how to pronounce the names of players in the starting lineups of the LCS. It's embarrassing. I understand that Maicer Izturis is not on their beloved Yankees, but it's still sort of nice to show him the simple courtesy of knowing how to say his name when the game is on national television.
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| There's no need to construct strawman arguments as long as Joe Morgan's still out there:
"I would vote for CC ... I would vote for him because when he came to the Yankees, he was under extreme pressure to do three things: 1) win games; 2) be the ace of the staff; 3) beat Boston. The only thing left to do is lead them in the playoffs, but the votes will be in before the playoffs. There have been a lot of guys that they brought to that staff to be the ace and haven't, guys like Randy Johnson. CC will have more innings pitched, Greinke may have better other numbers. But for me it's innings pitched and wins and losses. But you can not take away from what Greinke has done. I would not argue with anyone who votes for him."
That's certainly cordial of you, Joe, to not argue with the people who are obviously right. Your argument is essentially: "Yeah, Greinke's pitched a lot better than Sabathia, but Sabathia plays for the Yankees!" Then you go on to cite wins and losses. You do realize, don't you, that Sabathia's edge in W-L is completely due to the fact that he has the Yankees behind him, while Greinke has the Royals? Just checking. Greinke has SIX games in which he has gone at least 7 innings, given up 0 or 1 run, and did not get a win out of it. Sabathia has one such game. How can anyone possibly hold this against Greinke?
Yeah, also Sabathia has pitched 4 more innings than Greinke. Wooooooo innings pitched!
Greinke: 2.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 237 K, 223.1 IP
Sabathia: 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 194 K, 227.1 IP
This is not hard. You take your AL Cy Young ballot, and you vote for Greinke. Doing otherwise is justification for being placed in a mental institution
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| Regarding voting for pitchers for MVP, I have heard a certain sentiment expressed many times lately. It's come from fans, broadcasters, and writers. It is the following:
"Pitchers should not win MVPs, because they can only help their team once every five games."
This is a mind-bogglingly stupid argument. There's something counteracting it that's being completely neglected. When Tim Lincecum is pitching, he affects the outcome of the game FAR more than his teammates do individually. Whether it's five times as much, more, or less, is a legitimate issue to ponder. The statement above, on the other hand, is so blindingly ignorant it makes my stomach hurt. | | |
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