| | In case you missed it, here's the trade that went down this week:
Twins get: Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, minor league outfield prospect
Rays get: Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, minor league pitching prospect
Everyone and their mom seems to think the Twins fleeced the Rays on this one. I disagree. I think Tampa Bay got the better of this deal. They exploited major differences between perceived player value and actual player value. I'll ignore the two prospects, because comparing minor league prospects is not something I want to get into. I'll call that a wash, though people who know them seem to think the pitcher going to the Rays is a little bit more promising.
Jason Bartlett is more valuable to your team than Brendan Harris is. Twins fans insist (based on observation) that Bartlett's defense isn't all that good. This is why we rely on various objective measures instead of what Twins fans remember when we're evaluating players. Who the hell cares if Bartlett looks fluid at shortstop or not? He gets to every ball within a 12-mile radius. Different statistical analyses agree that he's damn good. A vastly superior range far more than outweighs a dozen or so additional errors.
Now on to the more significant players in the trade. Everyone seems to be operating under the assumption that Delmon Young is a sure thing can't-miss superstar, and that Matt Garza's a sort of ok middle-of-the-rotation starter. I won't predict that Garza will win a Cy Young, but he's probably going to be better than a LAIM (league-average innings muncher). Young, however, is the one who I think I've got a serious minority opinion about.
Delmon Young is the perfect example of a player who's just flat-out not as useful as any scout will tell you he his from watching him play. Scouts can give you great information about ability. Smart mathematically-minded people can give you great information about value. Often the two coincide very closely, but this is one of those cases where they don't.
Young's mechanics are good, he plays with passion, and he's got a pretty swing. The problem is, he has no plate discipline and not much power. It's simply not possible to help your team all that much if you rarely walk and don't hit many home runs.
Delmon Young could improve to the point where he hits .350 every year, and he still won't be a superstar. Hitting .350 with no power or plate discipline makes you a poor man's Ichiro Suzuki. He'd be good, sure, but this "perennial all-star phenom legend" talk needs to stop. The Rays' management realizes all this, and they're trading him while lots of people still have pipe dreams for Young. An above-average starting pitcher is much more valuable than an outfielder with an .850 OPS. That .850 OPS is my arbitrary projection. Young's actual OPS this year was .724. Sure, it's "possible" he might bulk up a lot and develop a keen discerning eye at the plate. Do you think those things are likely to happen within the next couple of years while he's super-cheap? I sure don't.
|
| | Posted 11/29/2007 5:21 PM - 10 Views - 2 eProps - 1 Comment
- recommend
  - recs0
- share
- email
 - sent0
|
